Tag Archives: primary

The Presidential Primaries as of February 2012

This round of Republican Primaries is called wacky, zany, strange, unpredictable and frustrating. It is also the most important election in my lifetime (born 1956). There is no way I can predict tomorrow, much less the election, so this is just a collection of wacky observations of others. These are more or less random thoughts of insanity. I am not documenting any of this, because it is so crazy and might be completely different even before we can publish this.

Newt Gingrich is in the lead in the polls in Georgia, Alabama and California. Ron Paul had a brief lead in Texas, but I could not verify that. Rick Santorum leads in Michigan, Ohio and Illinois (At this time it does not matter. Illinois votes March 20). Mitt Romney is expected to sweep the “Mormon Corridor” (Arizona, Utah and Idaho). Who came up with that name? I know a lot of people in Idaho. They are all voting for Ron Paul. At least, that’s what they say. New York is equally divided between Rick Santorum (upstate), Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich (NYC).

The RNC has not yet taken action against Florida for awarding Mitt Romney a “winner-takes-all” of 50 delegates. The RNC rules require all elections before April first to be proportional. Arizona is also going to award delegates as winner-take-all. Steps the RNC is considering are: 1) Refuse to seat the Florida and Arizona delegates in the first round of voting. 2) Simply award Florida and Arizona’s delegate votes proportionally regardless of how the actual delegates vote. 3) File lawsuits against Florida and Arizona. I believe what will actually happen is: 4) nothing. The Arizona and Florida delegates will roll into Tampa and vote as if nothing happened.

Conservative, pro-family, anti-birth control Rick Santorum was just endorsed by the Rock Group Megadeth. (Eh?) Mitt Romney is reportedly outspending Rick Santorum more than 100:1. Yahoo just predicted Obama would win re-election 303 to 235. It’s a computer model, so it must be wrong. The Federal-spending limit will be reached in October, 2012. Newt Gingrich has pledged to stay in the race until the convention “no matter what.” What does that mean? Hillary Clinton reportedly wants out of the Obama administration. Does she seriously want to head the World Bank?

Head to head polls have Rick Santorum as the only Republican candidate to defeat Barak Obama. Will that hold? Unemployment, which includes those who have stopped looking for work, is around 20%. Figures which include the underemployed put the rate over 40%. Voters under 25 years old are very discouraged and not likely to vote for anyone. This is horrible news for liberals not at the top of the ticket. This is their primary voting block.

Personal freedom and moral values are listed as the driving forces for the vast majority of voters, Democrat as well as Republican. Economics is second, foreign policy, including wars, is third.

Every single one of these points could change before this is published. Interesting.

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By the Numbers

The popular vote in 2008 was [Barack Obama] 69,456,897 to [John McCain] 59,934,814, respectively, according to Wikipedia. As we travel back and forth, up and down, we have talked to thousands who testify that they voted for Barack Obama in 2008 but will not vote for him again. This time around they just will not vote for anyone. Some of them will change their minds and vote for him in 2012. The issue is how many is “some.” The 2008 election saw a record turnout, which will not happen in 2012 unless something drastic happens. Since the out of power party usually makes a small gain, slightly over 60 million Republican votes are likely. It is very doubtful that Barack Obama will have even 55 million legitimate votes. Ron Paul is very likely correct that whoever wins the Republican nomination will win the general election.

The 2012 Republican Convention requires 1143 delegates to win the nomination. The state of Virginia has 49 delegates for this convention and only Mitt Romney and Ron Paul are on the VA primary ballot. These 49 delegates are almost 5% of the total needed. With so many candidates and no candidate having even 30% this gives Mitt Romney and Ron Paul a tremendous advantage over the other candidates.

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